Archive for June, 2009

Hesitation Cuts on SATC

Thursday, June 11th, 2009

Saw SATC in my bargain bin yesterday at 1.56. By the time I decided to do anything about i, it was up to 1.59. I put in a limit at 1.57, and it went up to 1.64 instead. So I put in a limit at 1.64 after closing. It opened at 1.69, but then dipped down momentarily, long enough for my limit buy to go through. It is hard to balance between instincts and caution. We will see where this goes now.

Today’s askStockGuru advice is:

Breakout Trade: We would look for this stock to either close above 2.08 to go long or close below 1.63 to go short.
Retracement Trade: Consider buying when the price retraces around 1.63. Consider selling/shorting when the price approaches 2.08.

I’m going to go with selling most of it at 2.07 and keeping the rest to track. But I will have an alert set for 2.02 to re-evalutate when it gets close.

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Added RGLD to the Cheap, Lazy Watch List

Wednesday, June 10th, 2009

Based on the marvelous Stock Gumshoe article: “48 Karat Gold: An Investment Worth Twice Its Weight in Gold”

My back of the envelope buy price on this from looking at the Yahoo Interactive chart today is $40. Not bad, considering that Ask Stock Guru has today “Consider buy when the price retraces around 39.8 if you are aggressive. Alternatively, a conservative buy would be around 36.16″

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IBKR

Wednesday, June 10th, 2009

One of the reasons I started this blog was to track my own investing ideas. Since I use a wide variety of tools and information sources, I sometimes forget why I started following a particular stock.  In fact, that just happened with IBKR, where I received a Yahoo! Alert on a price drop below 14.7, but couldn’t remember why when I looked at the stats on Yahoo!. Looking at it for a bit, I figured I had probably picked that number from Ask Stock Guru.com. Sure enough, they had it at a buy (today) at 14.44. 14.7 would be close enough for me to re-evaluate and set up a limit buy or drop it from my list.

IBKR probably first came on my radar from a Motley Fool article. My very first Motley Fool pick was a great investment, but later forays have been mixed. No fault of the Fools, you spin the wheel and take your chances. It isn’t like I have the kind of time or money to track all of their recommendations.

Why finally made my mind up is the insider transactions. They have 11.91% inside ownership. Finally, I see a lot of activity on institutional shares, with the majority of the recent actions being a buy.

Bottom line: I put in a limit order today at 14.47

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Cheap Can Cost

Wednesday, June 10th, 2009

My trading account is with a deep discount online broker. I do this because I deal in very small trades, and the commission of a big broker can change my gains by as much as 30%.

Today I went to buy shares of INTG. They came up on my bottom-feeding radar and looked to me like they were in a emotional drop due to an announcement to buy back shares. I figured I could make an easy 20%+ in a month or less. However, my discount broker keeps prices low by not dealing in low volume stocks, so I couldn’t make the trade.

Watch INTG and see how far and how fast they go up from the current $9.14, and if they drop today to the $8.90 I was going to limit buy at.

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AMTC

Tuesday, June 9th, 2009

Checking this out today in my bottom trolling.  AMTC appears to be always volatile. The down swing is attractive, but I’m feel less than confident in my own guess-work today, so I only made a Wall Street Survivor buy on this one.  Let’s see what happens.

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How Cheap, Lazy Investors Spot A Twisted Promotion

Monday, June 8th, 2009

An alert reader sent in an ad that bragged about the reader who followed the advise of the newsletter had made 100% profits in 90 days. That definitely sounds impressive.  Until you look at the information given to back up the claim.  The teaser that  “since March alone” … “doubled…”.

OK, I can stop right there. Being paranoid is a price one pays for being cheap and lazy. If you’re not paranoid, you can’t be lazy. Well, you can, but you won’t be investing for long, because you’ll be broke. And I was paranoid around the March time frame after the heavy beating I took in the Fall of 2008. So I only bough a little of the terribly depressed stocks available at that time. I could have thrown a dart on March 1st and tripled my money in 90 days (and did, on one stock…tripled, not the dart thing). Look at the charts of almost any stock of real interest, and odds are 9 out of 10 that it will have doubled since March 1st.

I’m not saying the newsletter in question is not useful, informative, or even profitable. I am saying that if they are going to try to sell me with a stacked deck, I’ll pass.

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Does This Really Work?

Friday, June 5th, 2009

As a result of being cheap and subscribing to lots of free investment info, I get more than my fair share of emails advertising to idiots. One of my a favorites (mentioned last week but received again this week) offers “free stock picks” for paying for a stock pick newsletter. Does that mean the free ones are good and the one you pay for are worthless, or vice versa?

Anyway, today’s junk mail was this offer for a special report of ten top picks. I would have bit, knowing full well it would increase the work of my spam filter. But then I noticed that they had eight links in the email to the same place to get the free report. Which tells me that they are either too dumb to hire a good web copy writer for their pitches or are only looking for people so dumb that they have to be shown eight times how to get something for free. I can understand two (top and bottom of the email), even three if it is a really long email. But eight links? Nah, that’s too many. I’ll pass.

If you want to get it anyway, those eight links point to http://www.newsletteradvisors.com. It actually came with a parameter, but that probably confirms my email address as a sucker, so I’m leaving it off.

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New Good Link

Thursday, June 4th, 2009

Thanks to the Stock Gumshoe for recommending Woman With Portfolio

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KENDL: 6 Weeks to 23%

Thursday, June 4th, 2009

One of my favorite approaches is bargain bin hunting. Everyday I look at stocks that are getting pummeled and review them to see which are getting beat up for good reason and which are just victims of mob mentality. On 4/21 I picked up KENDL at 10.57. I expected it to go up by 50% within a few months. When it leaped up to the 13.50 range today, I set a sell at 13.76, slightly above the analysts 1 year target.

Lesson learned from Cramer: Don’t be greedy. I’m not rich enough to ride it down as he correctly recommends, but, hey, who is going to complain at 23% in 6 weeks?

Basically, my theroy is that most stocks that go up fast are going to come down fast. Hopefully not all the way, but I want to sell near the peak, like catching a good wave on Boogie Board. If I still like the stock, I set a price to buy back in.

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Get Out Now!

Wednesday, June 3rd, 2009

Well, actually, I think you should consider it heavily first. What got me excited was to see an investment newsletter article that was recommending what to get out of without having already charged folks to tell them to get into it. But, this is cheap and lazy investing, not cynical investment advice reviewing, so I’ll just point you to the article that prompted my thinking on this topic over at Investor Place.

I haven’t done the research on their recommendations yet. I will say, when it comes to consumer stocks, I always expect the run to be a fad, try to find it on the way up, and then figure a point where I can get out with a small profit and what I call “free stock”, which means that I managed to sell enough of the stock I bought within a year to profit 15% (to cover the taxes) and still have stock to hang on to. If the stock goes down, I’m not really out anything except the satisfaction of “I told you so”. This only failed once, with Washington Mutual. If I had dumped it all, I would have doubled my money in 14 hours. Instead, I had a one day high, and now own stock that would cost more in commission to sell than I could get for it. Maybe 20 years from now, people will collect loser stocks like cars that didn’t sell well.

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